--- title: "Robert Nikic on Income Fraud: Why Order Count Isn't Revenue" description: "Robert Nikic on income fraud and fake sales screenshots: why order counts hide the real number, and how to check any income claim before you trust it." canonical: "https://robertnikic.com/blog/robert-nikic-on-income-fraud-order-count-isnt-revenue" author: "Robert Nikic" type: "Article" published: "2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z" updated: "2026-10-19T18:10:30.977000" --- # Robert Nikic on Income Fraud: Why Order Count Isn't Revenue Robert Nikic on income fraud and fake sales screenshots: why order counts hide the real number, and how to check any income claim before you trust it. **In short:** Income fraud often starts with a screenshot. A picture of orders or sales says almost nothing about whether a business makes money. Before you trust any income claim, ask for profit, over a defined period, after every cost, and ask what the typical person earns. ### Myth 1: "Look at all these orders. This business is crushing it." **Fact:** Orders are activity, not income. I've watched people care more about the order count than the revenue they were actually bringing in. They want the instant gratification of a big number, and a dashboard full of orders gives it to them. **▶ Watch:** [Watch: Robert Nikic on why order count isn't revenue](/media/order-count-isnt-revenue) A thousand orders can lose money. It depends on what each order cost to make, ship and advertise, and how many came back. ### Myth 2: "A sales screenshot is proof." **Fact:** A screenshot is a picture someone chose to show you. Here's what a typical sales screenshot leaves out: What's missing | Why it matters | Cost of goods | What the seller paid for what they sold | Ad spend | Many "record days" are bought with ads that cost more than the sales | Platform and payment fees | Often a meaningful share of every sale, depending on the platform | Refunds and returns | Orders that came back after the screenshot was taken | Time period | One great day dressed up as a normal month | Whose account it is | Screenshots are easy to borrow or edit | ### Myth 3: "If they're advertising the number, it must be legal." **Fact:** In the US, misleading income claims can carry serious penalties. In October 2021, the FTC sent a Notice of Penalty Offenses to more than 1,100 businesses that promote money-making opportunities, warning that false or misleading earnings claims could lead to civil penalties ([FTC](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2021/10/ftc-puts-businesses-notice-false-money-making-claims-could-lead-big-penalties)). The notice says it's deceptive to present earnings as typical without clearly disclosing context such as the time and effort involved, the percentage of participants who earned that amount and what participants typically make ([FTC Notice](https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/attachments/penalty-offenses-concerning-money-making-opportunities/mmo-notice.pdf)). It also says it's deceptive to leave out conditions that affect income, like the expenses participants have to pay. That's the standard to hold any income claim to, whether it's in an ad, a webinar or a direct message. ### Myth 4: "A projection is basically a promise." **Fact:** A projection is an estimate. It can be useful, but it isn't a result. Forecasts, calculators and estimates have a place in business. They help you plan. But they're built on assumptions, and a good one tells you what those assumptions are. I've always said that estimates should be one part of a broader plan, never treated as a guarantee. Ask: what assumptions is this based on, and what happens if they're wrong? ### Myth 5: "The best result is what I can expect." **Fact:** The typical result is what you should expect. The single best story is the least useful number in any pitch. Ask for the typical result, the median, and what percentage of people reached the advertised number. Under the FTC's Business Opportunity Rule, sellers covered by the rule who make earnings claims must provide a written statement that includes the number and percentage of buyers who achieved the claimed result ([FTC](https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/selling-work-home-or-other-business-opportunity-revised-rule-may-apply-you-1)). ### A worked example: 1,000 orders, still a loss Here's how a "1,000 orders this month" screenshot can hide a losing business. The numbers are illustrative. Line | Amount | 1,000 orders at $30 average | $30,000 revenue | Cost of goods ($14 each) | −$14,000 | Shipping ($5 each) | −$5,000 | Platform and payment fees (15%) | −$4,500 | Ad spend | −$7,500 | Refunds (6% of orders) | −$1,800 | **What's left** | **−$2,800** | A thousand orders. A loss. And the screenshot would look fantastic. ### How to check any income claim in five minutes - **Ask for profit, not revenue.** - **Ask for the time period**, with start and end dates. - **Ask what costs are included.** If ads aren't included, the number is incomplete. - **Ask what the typical person earns**, not the best person. - **Ask for written proof.** If they can't provide it, treat the claim as marketing. ### How to read your own numbers honestly This isn't only about other people's claims. It's easy to fool yourself too. Track three lines every month: revenue, total costs and what's left. If what's left isn't growing, the order count doesn't matter. The SBA's guide to managing business finances is a good place to start if you've never set up simple monthly books ([SBA](https://www.sba.gov/business-guide/manage-your-business/manage-your-finances)). ▸ **The policy side** Fake income claims do damage beyond the people who fall for them. They make real small-business numbers look disappointing, and they push new founders toward risks they can't afford. Part of my focus now, as an advisor on innovation and economic growth to an international council working on SDG 8 & 9, is fair access to credit for small businesses. I've argued that lenders should judge small firms on real sales data. The same honesty should apply to anyone advertising income: show the full picture, or don't show the number. ### FAQ: income fraud and income claims **What is income fraud in online business?** In this context, it means misleading claims about how much money a business or opportunity makes, often through selective screenshots, untypical examples or numbers that leave out costs. **How do you know if an income screenshot is fake?** You often can't tell from the image alone. Ask for profit over a defined period, the costs included and written documentation. **Is order count the same as revenue?** No. Order count is the number of transactions. Revenue is the money they bring in, and profit is what's left after costs. **Orders are noise. Profit is the signal.** #### What is Robert Nikic's view on income claims? Robert Nikic's view is that order counts and sales screenshots are designed to impress, not inform. The only number worth trusting is profit over a stated period, with costs included and typical results disclosed. **Related reading:** [Robert Nikic on Business Scams: 7 Questions to Ask First](/blog/robert-nikic-on-business-scams-questions-before-you-invest) · [Passive Income Scams and the Right Way](/blog/robert-nikic-on-passive-income-scams-the-right-way) · [Let Investors Pick Your Product](/blog/robert-nikic-on-money-let-investors-pick-your-product)