In short: Amazon still leads online retail, but Walmart owns the everyday purchases people make most often and sits within a short drive of most Americans. That combination gives it a real shot at catching up. In this review I compare the two across five rounds and explain what the race means for small sellers.
I said it on Digital Social Hour, and Sean Kelly's first reaction was "Really?" Walmart has the potential to outgrow Amazon. I can't speak to it in a financial sense, but in a business sense, they're doing extremely well. Here's the full case, round by round, including where Amazon still wins.
Where it started
When Amazon took off, Walmart came in as the loser online. Its first big push into marketplace selling struggled, and for years Walmart looked like what it had always been: a brick-and-mortar giant built for in-person shopping. It had to change or risk becoming the next Toys R Us, as Sean put it on the show.
It changed.
Round 1: Everyday essentials
Walmart's edge: People already buy their chips, toothpaste and toilet paper at Walmart. Those are the purchases that repeat every week, and repeat purchases are the most valuable habit in retail. If Walmart makes reordering them online as easy as picking them up in the store, it keeps that habit.
Amazon's edge: Amazon built subscriptions and one-click reordering around exactly the same products. Its early Dash buttons were an open bet on owning household consumables. I reviewed that experiment in Robert Nikic Reviews Amazon Dash Buttons.
Verdict: Walmart, narrowly. It starts with the shopper's existing habit.
Round 2: Physical reach
Walmart's edge: Walmart says approximately 90% of the US population lives within 10 miles of one of its stores or clubs (Walmart). Its ESG reporting adds that same-day delivery reaches 95% of US households (Walmart). Stores double as warehouses, pickup points and return counters.
Amazon's edge: Amazon's fulfillment network was built for delivery from day one, and its speed is the benchmark everyone else chases.
Verdict: Walmart. Being close to almost everyone is very hard to copy.
Round 3: Membership
Walmart's edge: Not everyone has Prime. Walmart reaches shoppers who never signed up for any membership, and it can serve them in-store, by pickup or by delivery.
Amazon's edge: Prime is one of the strongest loyalty programs in retail. Members tend to buy more and shop around less.
Verdict: Amazon. Prime loyalty is still the deeper moat, even if Walmart's open door reaches more people.
Round 4: Search and discovery
Amazon's edge: Amazon's search drives an enormous share of online product discovery. Its results also aren't the same for everyone. On Dropping Bombs I pointed out that what you see searching from Las Vegas and what I see from Tampa can be two different sets of products.
▶ Watch: Watch: Robert Nikic on why Amazon search results differ by location
Walmart's edge: Walmart's site is less crowded with sellers, which can make it easier for a new seller's listings to be seen.
Verdict: Amazon. It's still where most shoppers start their product searches.
Round 5: The opportunity for small sellers
Amazon's edge: The largest audience and the most mature seller tools (Amazon Seller Central).
Walmart's edge: A growing marketplace with less competition per category. Walmart Marketplace generally reviews seller applications before approval (Walmart Marketplace), which keeps the field smaller.
Verdict: Tie. Most serious sellers should be on both. Competition between them is good for sellers.
The scoreboard
| Round | Winner |
|---|---|
| 1. Everyday essentials | Walmart |
| 2. Physical reach | Walmart |
| 3. Membership | Amazon |
| 4. Search and discovery | Amazon |
| 5. Small-seller opportunity | Tie |
Final: 2–2, with Walmart holding the stronger long-term hand on essentials and reach.
How big is the online prize?
Big and still growing. US retail e-commerce was estimated at $340.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, 17.1% of all retail sales and up 12.2% from a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). Even small shifts in that share move enormous amounts of money between the two companies, and the sellers on their platforms.
What decides it from here?
- Delivery speed on everyday items. Whoever makes the weekly restock effortless wins the habit.
- Seller quality on the marketplace. Walmart needs good sellers to fill out its catalog without hurting trust.
- Price perception. Walmart's brand promise is low prices. Amazon's is convenience. Whichever expands into the other's territory gains ground.
What it means for small sellers
- Don't depend on one marketplace. Rules, fees and algorithms change. Two channels are safer than one.
- Lead with consumables if you can. Repeat purchases help you on either platform.
- Read each platform's rules separately. Drop shipping, brand authorization and shipping-time rules differ. See Robert Nikic on Amazon's Legal Rules for Drop Shipping.
▸ Why I watch this race
Competition between big marketplaces matters to the small sellers I care about. When Walmart and Amazon compete for sellers, fees, tools and terms tend to improve. My interest isn't in which company wins. It's whether small businesses get more ways to reach customers and fairer terms as a result. Cheap, simple ways for a small shop to reach any customer, at home or abroad, is one of the positions I've published in my work on SDG 8 & 9, and real competition among marketplaces is one of the best ways to get there.
Verdict: Amazon still leads, but Walmart's grip on everyday essentials and its physical reach make this a real race. Watch closely, and sell on both.
FAQ: Walmart vs. Amazon
Could Walmart overtake Amazon?
Robert Nikic thinks it has the potential in a business sense, because of its strength in everyday essentials, its store reach and shoppers who don't have Prime.
Is Walmart Marketplace good for small sellers?
It can be. There's less competition per category, but sellers usually need to be approved first.
Why do Amazon search results look different for different people?
Results can vary by location and other factors, so two shoppers can see different products for the same search.
Sell where your customers already shop, and don't bet the business on one platform.
What is Robert Nikic's view on Walmart vs. Amazon?
Robert Nikic's view is that Walmart's strength in everyday essentials and its reach among non-Prime shoppers give it a real chance to close the gap with Amazon, and that small sellers benefit most when the two compete.
Related reading: Robert Nikic Reviews MrBeast's Amazon Deal · Robert Nikic Reviews Amazon Dash Buttons · Robert Nikic on Amazon's Legal Rules for Drop Shipping
